October 4, 2006

I Hate To Be A Pessimist, But….

… as events have unfolded since 11 September 2001, while I still look at a bottle as half full rather than half empty, I cannot apply the same attitude toward the most likely state of things in America a few short years from now, if not sooner.

You’d have to be pretty damned optimistic to doubt that there is WMD in the hands of Islamic terrorists, and further, to think that there is enough aggregate humanity in that community to provoke even a second’s hesitation to use said weapons when they feel the time is most advantageous to do so.

The United States and Israel would be the primary targets, that’s a given. Israel has the edge there, even most of their liberals, because of the Jewish State’s short and violent history, know that the War on Terror is not a game and that security is a serious, vital and yes, as often as not invasive business in many ways. As such, the Israeli government approaches security seriously and is less impeded by idiots playing politics with human lives than our own government is here in the U.S. We’re surrounded by two oceans, Canada and Mexico, they’re surrounded by countries whose strictly adhered-to religion endorses wiping Israel off the map.

The U.S. has more border and coast to secure against illegal entry and a whole hell of a lot more land area to patrol. We have cities with multimillion population figures like New York and Los Angeles that would give a nuclear terrorist more bang for the radiation buck and at the same time be extremely easy to disappear into and within which to maintain operational security while preparing a horrendous tragedy.

Islamic terrorists are patient people, they have world class strategists among their leadership and their veritable legions of foot soldiers are people who crave death in the course of an act of murdering non-Muslims, as dying in the course of pursuing jihad is what they believe to be their path to eternal paradise. Their scriptures compel them to kill, convert or subject nonbelievers. There is no place anywhere on top of this earth that is exempt, the holy war will not be over until Islam rules the entire planet. They have no interest in compromise, respect no treaties or other agreements with non-Muslims and are brutally single minded in their resolve. They care nothing about killing fellow Muslims in the course of their terrorism, no collateral damage of any kind is of any consequence in planning their operations. Their religion permits them to violate its commandments in order to blend in among the “infidel” enemy – us.

Europe, shockingly enough including England, is well into a phased surrender to Islam, so there would be little strategic sense in wasting a perfectly good suitcase nuke on that quarter, but thanks to the love of liberty and the independent spirit of most right-thinking Americans, the United States is a strong pocket of resistance on top of being the epitome of everything Islam considers incompatible with its very existence.

We are the prime target for any nuclear terrorist attack. Count on it.

The left apparently believes that we can go to a street fight with a book of Queensbury Rules in our back pocket and return with no broken bones, if we return at all. They are evidently incapable of perceiving that at the end of the day, no brilliant diplomacy, no nice gestures, no compromise, no appeasement, no humane, moral or in any way decent concessions will earn us anything other than contempt and more vigorous and ruthless attacks from this implacable, malevolent enemy.

The Democrats labor under the impression that, for purely political reasons, they can oppose the Bush Administration’s attempts to protect the nation against terrorism at every turn with an end toward making the President fail and still see America come out of the deal with a whole skin.

While Bush is waging war to protect America and Americans, the Democrats are waging war against Bush.

They spin high tech eavesdropping on known suspected terrorists and terrorist connections into the NSA listening in on Rhoda’s arrangements for her son Irving’s Bar Mitzvah, Joe’s organizing of the Friday night card game and booze fest with Tony, Alfie and Moose and Janet’s personal conversation with her gynecologist, and protest these invasions of privacy.

They spin the Bush Administration’s monitoring terrorist financing bank accounts as “spying on” the money little Tommy has deposited in savings from his paper route or the balance Jimmy and Jane maintain in checking to keep their household finances on point.

They spin the Bush Administration’s radiation monitoring of suspect Muslim mosques as ethnic or religious discrimination…. Despite the fact that storing a nuke in a mosque is completely acceptable in Islam, as the stored contraband item will be used to murder infidels.

They…. Well, that’s not actually the subject of this post, it’s just getting my usual digressions out of the way in advance while also setting the stage….

…. For what I’m actually posting about, and that is a scenario of sorts that I’m about 250% sure will manifest itself in years to come – and I’m not necessarily talking a decade, or half a decade.

So, let’s get started.

The Democrats have a majority on the Hill and a Democrat sits in the Oval Office.

A suitcase nuke goes off in downtown Manhattan in the middle of a business day. Bye- bye NYSE, COMEX, NASDAQ, etc, the Federal Reserve and some of the world’s largest banks, the U.N. (bummer, heh) and at least five million human beings. The radiation takes care of folks in Brooklyn, the Bronx, Queens and Staten Island, as well as Nassau and Suffolk counties over a day’s time, Westchester and Putnam Counties, to add a few more million.

The blow to our economy is incalculable. The death toll is beyond reason.

You think some Arabic 7-11 owners being beaten up after 9/11 was pretty bad, huh? There will be shootings and hangings and so forth, Americans will go berserk. There will be unrest, all directed toward Muslim communities.

The so-called “peaceful” Muslims, the ones who had previously kept their traps shut, rather than protest the terrorist act, will riot, demonstrate and protest the “racism” they are encountering. There will be pandemonium, firefights on the streets and tons of National Guard activity.

The government will be in a position where the only logical action will be declaring martial law, but they won’t do so because they are Democrats and that would infringe on citizens’ “rights”.

A second nuke detonates in L.A., followed by a third in Chicago. Now our markets have ceased to exist to all intents and purposes, we no longer have an economy and millions more are dead. Rioting and looting have become the norm.

The Democrat President and the left hand side of Congress blame former President George W. Bush for not conducting adequate surveillance and monitoring operations, the same ones they themselves had deep-sixed, and all the former Bush bashers agree.

Meanwhile, the pandemonium continues.

And another suitcase nuke goes off in Baltimore….

by @ 5:03 pm. Filed under Global War On Terror
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34 Responses to “I Hate To Be A Pessimist, But….”

  1. Ogre Says:

    I see a simultaneous strike in Israel AND somewhere in the US. I’m not sure it will be NYC this time. And I don’t see them striking the left coast, as those are their allies. They’ll steer clear of the area near Michigan, again because of allies. Instead, I think their most likely target will be DC. And yeah, in your lifetime.

  2. Raven Says:

    What an awful thought, but I see it coming as well.
    They call us the doomdayers. So be it. We’ll all need to have our guns and food and other items in order to survive this…

    The Dems wouldn’t know what to do. They would be in total chaos…it’s scary.

    GUess it gives us reason to keep fighting.

  3. Michael Says:

    Yep, it will happen and most of Americans will not be readdy or understand why this happened. the question they will ask is why don’t they like us?

  4. Seth Says:

    Ogre –

    Wherever they hit us, I envision a nightmare scenario resulting, as grim or grimmer than that depicted by the grimmest of the grim we see on late night cable movies along those lines. We are presently fighting WWIII, and all too many Americans, blinded by the anti-Bush disinformation blatherings of the mainstream media haven’t a clue about what’s in store for us.

    By the time the MSM assumes responsibility for accurately disseminating information, their readership will, sadly, have been decreased by at least eight digits.

    But the above is going to happen and a lot of eyes are going to open wide, only too late. Just wait until the Dems again get majority market share in the government.

    Unless we conservatives maintain control of our national security, the U.S. is fukt.

    Raven –

    It’s coming. Al-Qaeda very possibly has at least 20 suitcase nukes they bought from former KGB people years ago, and a lot of stuff from among the inventory Saddam “didn’t have” according to the MSM, obtained from Syria.

    We are facing tragedies that will make 9/11 look like a traffic accident.

  5. Seth Says:

    Michael –

    Exactly, and the conclusions from the left, including the MSM, will somehow make it look like it’s our fault it all happened, attaching little if any blame to Islamofascism.

    Hell, in Berkeley, before the dust settled, they were saying we deserved 9/11!

  6. atheling2 Says:

    I think they would be more apt to use an RDD than a nuke. Radiological Dispersion Devices, aka “dirty bombs”, can be made to spread radiation, yet require less vigilance in its care and transport than a full blown nuke.

    In 1999, two Chechan militants stole highly radioactive materials from a chemical plant in Grozny and both were severely injured within minutes of carrying the chemicals. One died.

    I don’t think the Muslims have the technological expertise to preserve or transport plutonium or cesium, but they could use americium or strontium, which would be less disastrous for us, but easier for them to use. It would cause more longterm than immediate health problems for those exposed to it, and would result in massive displacement of populations… think Hurricane Katrina.

  7. Raven Says:

    I also think they will hit NYC and DC to start with.
    NYC offers more bang for the buck…DC is where all the polcats are. LA and west coast cities just don’t have the power to waste such damage on…Chicago- yes. I say too- they will hit some mid size cites just for impact.

  8. Always On Watch Says:

    God help us. I think you’ve laid out what’s going to happen, right down to Muzzies’ demonstrating against racism after the nuke goes off. Basically, that’s what’s been happening since 9/11–worrying about Islamophobia.

    The left apparently believes that we can go to a street fight with a book of Queensbury Rules in our back pocket and return with no broken bones, if we return at all.

    A perfect analogy. Utopians are idiots. Dangerous idiots.

  9. Mark Alexander Says:

    What you describe here, Seth, is quite a likely scenario. Sadly. Very sadly. Five years down the road from 9/11, Westerners are still debating who the enemy is, what should be done about the problem; and people are running scared of hurting the feelings of Muslims. It’s a pathetic state of affairs.

    Civil war is well on the cards with or without nukes anyway. People are beginning to see clearly now that our leaders are not up to the task ahead of them. They are fiddlng and faffing around, passing this petty law and that, while all the time, our enemy is gaining strength and know-how.

    As things stand, we are losing this war. There needs to be a sea-change in strategy and a sea-change in awareness. The people, the electorates of the West, need to be told in certain terms what exactly is going on, and their co-operation needs to be sought to sacrifice and struggle for the values and way of life we know and love. Tough decisions, however unsavoury, should not be shied away from.

    This is not a left versus right problem. We are all in this together. We must be led to VICTORY, for only victory will do!

  10. Arthur Stone Says:

    Seth fantasized:

    Europe, shockingly enough including England, is well into a phased surrender to Islam, so there would be little strategic sense in wasting a perfectly good suitcase nuke on that quarter,

    Harrods in London has a new section in the women’s department for designer burquas & chadoors.

    Folks want to be ready when the Islamofascists occupy Buckingham Palace.

  11. Raven Says:

    No Arthur. Seth isn’t fantasing anything about Europe:

    POLICE have agreed
    to consult a panel of Muslim leaders before mounting counter-terrorist raids or arrests. Members of the panel will offer their assessment of whether information police have on a suspect is too flimsy and will also consider the consequences on community relations of a raid.

    A new cemetery is to have all its graves aligned with Mecca - making it the first council graveyard in the country to bury the dead in Islamic tradition, regardless of their religion.

  12. Seth Says:

    Atheling2 –

    I did a post on that very thing last December.


    There are strong possibilities that the fine folks over at al-Qaeda will not need to build anything “from scratch”, as they may well already have the weapons they need.

    They have also, of late, been running a recruiting drive for nuclear scientists, and there are an awful lot of dissafected and money hungry folks out there, in all walks of life.

    There is also the question of WMD we know Saddam possessed that seems to have disappeared during all the leeway we gave him prior to invading Iraq. If much of it was moved into Syria as some intelligence indicates the possibility of, Syria being a terrorist backing country, well…

    Raven –

    L.A. could be hit simply because of the size of its population.

    Chicago is home to the CBOT and CME, two of our major commodities exchanges, the former being our principal trading venue for all agricultural products, beef, pork (mmmmm, pork!) and so forth. Hits on New York and Chicago would effectively decimate our economy.

    AOW –

    Yes, terrorism is succeeding in the west, the concept of “do as we say or we’ll smack you again” seems to be working just fine.

    Across the Atlantic, governments and private industry are scrambling to keep Islamics at bay through appeasement as though that will keep them safe. In Britain, they don’t even wait for Muslims to make demands, they just appease in advance. That is really sad to me, because I’ve always had a lot of respect for those folks and have a number of friends from the UK.

    The politicians and “captains of industry” don’t sweat it, so to speak, because they labor under the impression that terrorists will respect them for their positions and/ or wealth, that they will therefore receive better treatment than the rank and file citizen should Islam win this war. If anything, they’ll be first in line at the choppingt block.

    Mark –


    Given the capabilities we possess for defending our country, and indeed our very civilization against the threat posed by Islam, it is truly sad that those responsible for our defense are not utilizing the tools we have, but rather engaging in what amounts to petty politics.

    Those of us on the right want desperately for our leaders to wake up and go about the business of defending us against this enemy before it is too late(and “too late” is not far off).

    Those on the left, including both elected leaders and the majority of the media, based on purely political motivations, are obstructing our defense at every opportunity, apparently ignorant of the import of what we face.

    They label Bush the enemy and direct all their efforts toward “battling” his administration while they ignore the real source of danger.

    In the interests of political correctness, the media edits the truth into their own sanitized version of events or simply omits important details that don’t follow their political dogmas.

    We shouldn’t have to fight among ourselves as a prerequisite to engaging the enemy. As we saw during the Vietnam enterprise, a war can be lost just as easily at home as it can on the battlefield.

    You are 100% correct — everybody needs to get on the same page so we can get on with what amounts to a battle for our very civilization, and victory is the only acceptable goal.

    Arthur –

    Why do I always wonder, when I read your comments, “So what’s yer pernt?”

    By George, I’ve got it! Perhaps you should found your own political party. It could be named the “Contrarian Party”.

  13. Mark Alexander Says:

    Seth, you and I are singing from the same hymn sheet. It is great to make your acquaintance.

  14. Seth Says:

    Mark –

    Indeed we are!

    I just went over to your place and did some reading. Excellent perspective!

  15. Arthur Stone Says:


    My point is to acknowledge those frequent instances when this rightwing nonsense becomes ludicrous.

    Like your suggestion of the Brits surrendering to “Islam’. Phased at that.

    I appreciate the chuckle though.

  16. civil truth Says:

    Ogre (and others):

    By definition, no infidels are “allies” of the Islamists. The “left bank” and Michigan area may contain many sympathizers and fellow-travelers, but history shows that fellow-travelers do not get protected; indeed they are often the first victims of the new regime (remember the fate of the Mensheviks). This is especially the case in the U.S. since the lifestyle of the “left-bank” and their ilk are anathema (of the Arabic equivalent thereof) to the Islamists.

    In short, no place in America is safe from Islamist attack - we’re all enemies to the Islamists. Too many of us don’t realize that, and as Seth notes, probably will never realize it before we’re vaporized and dispersed into radioactive clouds.

    That is, regardless of what we may think about our fellow-Americans who disagree with us about our approach to the Islamists, we’re all in this together; no group will find sanctuary at the hands of the Islamists (except, perhaps, those who submit and convert in a timely fashion). We are our brothers’ keepers, whether they like it or not.


    The aspect of your scenario that rings true - regardless of which party is running Washington — is that several strategic strikes will bring down the tightly wound ecnonomy of the U.S. in conjunction with a massive breakdown in civil order, and the rest of the damage will be self-inflicted through rioting. This is the modern version of the fall of Ninevah in a single night, or the fall of Babylon.

    Islamic terrorists are patient people

    Again, as you well note, our greatest weakness is the difficulty our country has in engaging in strategic long-term thinking.

    However, at this point in time, given our lax security actions since 9/11, I think the likelihood of your secanario may no longer depend on whether the Democrats of the Republicans are running Washington. We may be past the point of no return, especially if the Islamist cell groups are well established.

    Where I may part company with a number of readers here is that I would hold the Bush administration culpable for increasing the likelihood of such a scenario — but not as a consquence of its prosecuting a war of terrorism (although I do criticize a number of tactical decisions they have made in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel/Lebanon/Palestine).

    Rather, I fault them for not taking seriously enough the war on terrorism and Islamists, and therefore not mobilizing the country against war and not calling on the citizenry to sacrifice (except for our soldiers and their families & communities), enabling Congress to conduct “pork” as usual rather than spending our money effectively to protect ourself against threats, as evidenced by Bush’s unwillingness to veto any spending bill.

    The adminstration has taken Lyndon Johnson’s “guns and butter” one step further by enabling waste and corruption in our “guns” purchases. History (if the West survives) will rightly hold of the Bush Administration and the Congressional Republican leadership in contempt for this portion of their legacy. (Of course, if the Islamists prevail, for the few of us whose children survive, our male descendants will be learning a very different history altogether.)

  17. Seth Says:

    Arthur –

    The problem faced by most portsiders is that you folks cannot accept or even acknowledge any concept or event that doesn’t fit snugly within your Utopian worldview. Even if something is happening right before your eyes, there’s no way it could be happening. Sad, but true.

    You should move to San Francisco, if you’re not already there, in order to surround yourself with kindred souls.

  18. atheling2 Says:

    “…Due to the history of RDD threats, the U.S. government has invested a great deal of money in radiation detection equipment, and has strategically located that equipment along the border at ports of entry and near critical sites. If the rumors of radioactive materials being smuggled over the Mexican border are true, the terrorists would want to detonate the device in a city close to the border out of fear that this network of detection systems would allow the material to be detected and seized by U.S. authorities before it could be employed.

    Stratfor Intelligence Report

    I didn’t even know we had a radiation detection system in place.

  19. Arthur Stone Says:


    I’m in Seattle.

    Another hub for the sceptical and non-fanatic.

    It must be comfort to you to simplify everything so completely. Of course there is a terrorist threat.

    Who said there wasn’t?

    But Britain isn’t on the verge of becoming an Islamic state.


  20. Seth Says:

    Civil Truth –

    Good comparison ie the Mensheviks.

    Unfortunately, what I see happening where Bush and the Republicans in Congress are concerned is not so much that they are doing what they would like to do in the security arena as that they are constantly sacrificing effective measures in order to appease the Democrats and get at least part of their agendas passed.

    This is not in the best interests of the country, to be sure, but as long as all too many of the folks on the right side of the aisle continue to pursue their perceived(I say perceived due to the contents of my post) futures in politics over the security of the country and kow tow to the left, I don’t see this being corrected. We have the ideal situation here, a strong conservative in the White House and a Republican majority in Congress, and it is being shamelessly squandered.

    I agree 100% that public sacrifice is called for — too many people have forgotten what a war effort entails. I remember finding WWII ration coupons in my grandparents’ basement when I was growing up. This war, unlike any we’ve fought since the War Between The States, is going to see its conclusion on American soil. We need to toss all the PC bologna out the window and realistically make whatever sacrifices need to be made to ensure our security. If some folks need to be inconvenienced or offended, so be it, we are literally fighting for our lives and our liberty.

    I also agree on your references to the fiscal aspects of the issue — there is all too much irresponsible spending and corruption in the military appropriations area, but this has been a practice since before either of us was born — hell, my grandfather and his brothers owned and operated a hat factory on the lower east side in Manhattan back in the 1930s - 1950s, and my grandfather once turned down a very lucrative contract with the Army because he didn’t believe in paying kickbacks, which created a rift with his too-hungry older brother, who did. It is a problem that has long been ignored, and whenever it surfaces it just kinda sorta gets placed on the back burner, not to be heard from again for a generation or two.

    In my opinion, politicians of both parties need to stand behind a President in time of war and iron out their differences after we’ve achieved victory — referring again to Vietnam….

    As far as our leaders not taking the threat posed by our Islamic enemy seriously enough, you’re spot-on and to me, the very concept is horrifying: With all their access to information on top of their responsibilities to the American people, you’d think they would have made themselves aware of the nature of the enemy and what’s at stake. I mean, most of those people are lawyers, and you don’t get through Law school if you’re analytically challenged.

  21. civil truth Says:


    I would refer you (and other interested readers) to Melanie Phillips’ website, to her various columns and diary entries, and also to check out her book Londonistan. Then think again about whether Seth is so far off in talking about a “phased British surrender” to Islam.

  22. Seth Says:

    Atheling2 –

    We’ve had radiation detection technology in place for some time, mainly in what some bureaucrats or other consider to be key threat areas.

    While I haven’t had any dealings with this technology in the course of work projects and am not really conversant on the detail end of things, it has been brought up at networking events by people who are and during some seminars I’ve attended.

  23. Seth Says:

    Atheling2 –

    If you want to read a really insightful book on the subject of the nuclear terrorist threat, and I’ve plugged this book before, I would highly recommend Nuclear Terrorism: the ultimate preventable catastrophe, by Graham Allison.

  24. Seth Says:

    Raven –

    In Arthur’s case, anything he reads that doesn’t fit into the preprogrammed jigsaw puzzle of his mind just goes in one eye and out the other. :-)

  25. Seth Says:

    Civil Truth –

    Since I first visited Melanie’s site, I’ve thought she was right on point. I’ve been meaning to pick up Londonistan or order it, but life of late has become a quagmire of short business trips mingled with way too much work, and I doth procrastinate too much. :-)

    Arthur –

    Interestingly enough, I keep up a steady e-mail correspondence with a couple of Brit friends and colleagues, both of whom reside in London and both of whom are well thought of in the security community. Without going further, I will venture that one of them works for the British government.

    Both agree completely with me re Britain’s phased surrender to Islam and neither of them is happy about it.

    Since both of these people live just a little closer to England {a little sarcasm, there} than Seattle, I’ll have to go with their observations.

  26. Arthur Stone Says:

    I read Londonistan.

    Melanie Philips is a Brit Rush Limbaugh & Londonistan is a racist screed. An alleged ‘expert’ on ‘Islam’ & the Middle East with no experience in the region nor any particular expertise beyond a career as a conservative pundit.

    Better writer than Rush though.

  27. Seth Says:

    Arthur, I’m impressed!

    You actually got through an entire book that didn’t mirror your Utopian fantasies to the letter?

    I can’t argue with you about the book until I’ve read it, but from what I’ve read ie posts and articles by Melanie, she seems pretty real to me.

    But of course, what’s real to most people is fake to you, you bein’ a lefty an’ all.

  28. Raven Says:

    Arthur- there is plenty of documentation that Britain is becoming an Islamic state.

    Abu Hamza - The Lying Cleric

    Islam’s Immigrant Invasion of Europe

    British Muslim Incitement Contnues

    This is how the Muslims want it all to work out: A gradual infestation that slowly becomes an everyday thing…Islamic teachings become the normal and accepted education; London becomes more “tolerant” of radicals and embraces them; Britain in general cowards down to Muslim demand. It’s how they do it…this infiltration of a society that is too blind to see it happening.

  29. Shoprat Says:

    There are signs that some people are waking up in Europe. I just hope it’s not too late.

    We can’t give up but must fight even harder.

  30. Seth Says:

    Raven –

    This is highly reminiscent of WWII before the U.S. got involved — the Nazis had control of most of Europe and it wouldn’t have been all that long, once Britain fell, before they cast their eyes on us.

    This time, however, we’re allowing the enemy to live among us and a large segment of our society, including our own government, is endorsing this.

    Shoprat –

    Unless the Europeans get very extreme very quickly, I think we can expect Eurabia to become a permanent fixture on the map.

  31. Ogre Says:

    And that’s my point about Muslim allies — in areas of Michigan, the area IS Islam. It’s not that there’s a few people there who are sympathetic to Islam, there are areas where the entire population IS Islam. They won’t attack there because in many cases, those will be the people doing the attacking. And they may want to show everyone else that if you simply bow down to them, you will be safe.

  32. Seth Says:

    Ogre –

    I hope to hell that the NSA is paying particular attention to every phone call in that particular area, and that the Bureau has a whole lot of assets there, and that we have radiation sensors trained on every mosque there. That will undoubtedly be a primary staging area, armory and HQ for the pandemonium to come.

    Multiculturalism and political correctness have enabled the enemy to establish a base right in the middle of our country, and we’ll soon have to pay the price.

  33. Raven Says:

    From what I have read and heard, the FBI and other agencies are indeed watching the Dearborn MI area very closely. Hezbollah has cells out there! Many of the business are fund raising groups for HZBLA as well…I want to know- do we have any military bases located near this place? We should. With their weapons at the ready.

  34. Seth Says:

    Raven –

    There is an Air National Guard base in Michigan, no other military installations. Perhaps that’s why they chose Dearborn, Detroit, etc for places to hang their hats….