April 26, 2010
Terrorist Biological/Chemical Warfare Threats…
…vs. Nukes shouldn’t be a matter of competing priorities, both being concerns involving weapons of mass destruction, though I’d have to agree with those who believe that the former are more likely to be employed, or attemptedly so, by terrorists than the latter.
The Obama administration’s push to address the specter of nuclear terrorism has some proliferation experts fretting that the White House isn’t as focused on the more likely scenario of being attacked with chemical or biological weapons.
Last week’s nuclear-security summit in Washington took steps to thwart attempts by al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to acquire the fuel for a nuclear bomb, which White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan called “one of the greatest threats to our national security.”
But some proliferation experts worry that chemical and biological weapons are much more likely to be used in a terrorist attack, and that the administration and Congress hasn’t adequately addressed this threat.
Okay, so…
One example: The Obama administration has yet to name an ambassador to the Chemical Weapons Convention in The Hague, a group that monitors military-grade chemical weapons and dual-use chemicals that could be used as weapons by terrorists.
A National Security Council strategy paper released in November concluded that a bioattack could kill hundreds of thousands of people and the cost of each incident could exceed $1 trillion. Chemical weapons, though less deadly, are easier to acquire and use.
Nuclear terrorism would be catastrophic, but the odds of a terrorist group acquiring fissile material, assembling it, and delivering a bomb are low, given the extreme difficulty of these tasks, experts said.
“People concentrate on what’s most terrifying, not on what could really happen,” said Eric M. Javits, ambassador under President George W. Bush to the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons in The Hague.
The bipartisan Commission on the Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism concluded in late 2008 that terrorist use of a biological weapon was “more likely” than the use of a nuclear weapon. The commission’s final report card, issued in January, noted the administration’s “keen understanding” of the nuclear threat but said there had been “no equal sense of urgency displayed towards the threat of a large-scale biological weapons attack.” The commission gave the U.S. an “F” grade for preparations against a biological attack.
The chairmen of that commission—former Sens. Bob Graham, a Democrat, and Jim Talent, a Republican—stressed before the House Committee on Homeland Security this week that the U.S. was still unprepared to deal with a large-scale attack using biological weapons, whose lethality could “rival or exceed that of an improvised nuclear device.”
I concur. There’s not a whole lot I can add to this one, as the author has laid it out completely in the article linked above, but I will say that I sincerely hope the Powers That Be, which unfortunately include such august personages as B. Hussein Obama and Janet Napolitano, will do something right, just this once, and refrain from basing whatever decisions they engender on our behalf based upon the last couple of paragraphs in the article.
But some WMD experts remain convinced that al Qaeda’s goal remains an attack that will trump the scope of Sept. 11, including the use of nuclear weapons. “I don’t get any sense al Qaeda is going downscale,” said Graham Allison, Director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a member of the WMD commission.
“What’s Osama bin Laden’s icon? It’s a mushroom cloud enveloping a city,” Mr. Allison said.
Sure, Mr. Allison, you go with the icon while those of us with a little more sense pray that O and company disregard a dumb logo and, though it’s not exactly a strong point of theirs, pursue a more logical course.
http://hardastarboard.mu.nu/wp-trackback.php?p=1199
April 27th, 2010 at 11:46 am
I suppose many of us still have duct tape; (and are not as cynical as this commenter):
“In 2003, Former Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge warned Americans they needed to stock up on duct tape and plastic sheeting if they wanted to stay safe from a terrorist attack. His advice incited panic and inspired a run on the items. Duct tape and sheeting flew off the shelves as Americans flocked to stores to stock up on as much as they could carry.
Ridge resigned as Homeland Security Director last December. So what’s he up to today? It was announced today that Ridge is joining the board of directors of Home Depot … national distributor of duct tape and plastic sheeting.”
..but it is a tough one. Standing armies use the stuff (like nukes) as a standoff. Hitler proposed using nerve gas to soften up Britain prior to his planned invasion. His military pointed out that the German population had no defense and the English likely had nerve gas to retaliate (they didn’t) and the Tabun/Sarin stockpiles were allowed to sit and accumulate. Terrorists do not worry about reprisal, so would love to get their hands on the stuff, including bio. So far, they have proved technically inept
(see the dude who toasted his gonads), but no doubt they will keep trying. Perhaps optimistic, but IMO, much of the technology is sophisticated..amateurs would be the first victims of their syntheses, be it organophosphate or plague. But, I agree, it is something to be aware of and prepare for.
…BTW, have you signed the petition to return the Statue of Liberty and the Lousiana Purchase to the French (spit!) yet?
April 27th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
BB –
I am proud to say that I’m not one of those who went hell bent for leather to the nearest duct tape tape and plastic sheeting outlet, figuring that it wasn’t one of the last administration’s finest moments when they made that recommendation.
This is because I figured (and still do) that when an attack of significant import arrives, it will be with a bio agent delivered in a way that includes transforming the initially infected into unknowing carriers during an incubation period (a week or so) who will spread the agent through contact with others. The first hint the public will have will be when it is too late to contain things in what you might call “an orderly manner”.
Unfortunately, nuclear security agreements and a zillion people running around grinning with geiger counters in hand will have about as much success in protecting the public as a case of rolls of duct tape and a couple of acres of plastic sheeting.
Ridge resigned as Homeland Security Director last December. So what’s he up to today? It was announced today that Ridge is joining the board of directors of Home Depot … national distributor of duct tape and plastic sheeting.”
LOL!
You don’t suppose he got the position just because he sent all those people to buy… No, no way!
April 27th, 2010 at 8:11 pm
I didn’t buy into the duct tape/plastic wrap thing either. Some times the cure is worse than the cause. In fact duct tape misuse is dangerous. Back in my teens we used it to affix a homemade rocket to a Schwinn. Not good…:)
April 27th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
BB –
There should have been a “MacGuyver’s Manual Of Duct Taping Made Safe”.
Back in my teens we used it to affix a homemade rocket to a Schwinn.
If it worked, it must’ve been a blast.
April 28th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
I have to agree with this post 100%, also with the author’s first comment (#2).
9/11 set a precedent; “small change”, unconnected cells might attack offices/mail recipients and other individual related targets with chemical agents, maybe even fairly large gatherings of people, whereas well connected and financed terrorists uninterested in “small change” attacks would be more likely to use highly communicable/spreadable bio agents that would create widespread tragedy and misery, and undermine the confidence of the American people in the ability of their government to protect them.
Good post!
April 28th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Harrigan246 –
Welcome to Hard Astarboard.
Thanks!
My sentiments exactly.